Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
