Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop 37% Under President Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The typical count of per-day murders monthly in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh government statistics. But, public safety analysts have advised that homicide figures might not point to better countrywide security.

Notable Reduction in Daily Figures

There was an mean of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September. This data was provided by the director of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had during these months is very important,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that last month the least number of murders were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Violent cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily militarised efforts to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than the US. However, homicides have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her public safety approach for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Enhanced collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Caution and Statistical Concerns

However, security analysts warned that using homicide data to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is notably true given the rise in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just look at the murder data and say: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to correctly recognize and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was additionally an issue because it could obscure days when there were notably elevated levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes spikes of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

However in spite of these actions, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with several regions in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and across the country to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to construct a narrative of security. Politically it’s highly potent, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas said.