Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
